If the epidemic continues and cannot end, what will the world be like in the end?

Netizens ask:

" If the epidemic never ends, what will the world look like in the end? "

The following is Uncle Jiu's answer.

If the epidemic never ends, the ultimate way to deal with COVID-19 is to make it endemic .

An endemic disease refers to the persistent or frequent prevalence of a disease or pathogen in a population within a certain geographic area . In the end, what the world will look like is a little clearer.

At present, China has included COVID-19 in the management of notifiable infectious diseases Category B , but it has adopted prevention and control measures for Category A infectious diseases, that is, our "dynamic clearing" policy. If it is included in endemic epidemics in the future, the most likely change is to downgrade the prevention and control measures of Category A to Category B.

In China, there are 40 types of legal infectious diseases, of which there are only 2 types of infectious diseases, 27 types of B types, and 11 types of C types.

Incorporating COVID-19 into an endemic epidemic requires a "sustainable management" approach to public health . For example, regular vaccinations (booster shots), specific drugs or therapies in treatment, efficient and low-cost joint defense mechanisms, and continuous monitoring of where, when and how the virus spreads…

Take the flu, for example.

At present, China adheres to the principle of " prevention first, combined prevention and treatment, scientific law, joint prevention and control " for influenza , and implements the strategy of "strengthening monitoring and early warning, immunizing key groups, standardizing epidemic handling, implementing medical treatment, and extensive publicity and mobilization". Carry out influenza prevention and control work, respond to the epidemic in a timely and effective manner, effectively reduce the risk of outbreaks or epidemics, protect the health of the general public, and reduce the impact on China's society and economy.

And this prevention and control plan may be used to prevent and control COVID-19 in the future.

What's the difference between this and coexistence, you might say? In fact, including COVID-19 as an endemic epidemic is a form of coexistence with the virus, but the premise is that we need a long-term mechanism for sustainable management to avoid runaway , and suppress the impact of the epidemic within a controllable range. Inside.

The goal of this mechanism is to "reduce damage", so the focus will be on "prevention-treatment-monitoring", which is not the same as the clear "detect-cut-extinction" mechanism.

However, in order to form a long-term mechanism for sustainable management, there are some prerequisites that must be met, otherwise it will often get out of control and the gains will outweigh the losses . For example, COVID-19 has become a "predictable disease", the pathogenicity of COVID-19 has been reduced to an acceptable level, the effectiveness of vaccines and drugs, and progress in treatment, the number of deaths per year is in a low and manageable range, and sustained Monitoring found no harmful mutations in the virus, and so on.

In the above premise, except the pathogenicity of COVID-19 is decreasing, the rest of the spectrum is not yet available at this stage . However, you are asking about the future, so these preparations are essential. And if you prepare early at this stage, whoever can win the advantage in advance, wait until the big change comes and then prepare, the attack and defense will be different.